No correlation

Remember Homework #7: well, there’s an official answer to the question: do more (Facebook) likes mean more votes?  And the answer is no no correlation:

My favorite quote:  “Trilogy says the Facebook margin of victory only explained about 13% of voting results. For gubernatorial races, that correlation is even lower, with the strength of a candidate’s Facebook presence only explaining about 0.8% of the vote margin. And for House races, there was actually a slight negative correlation, meaning a stronger Facebook popularity was associated with a smaller margin of victory.”

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One Response to “No correlation”

  1. From Fast Company article:

    “Facebook did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

    ‘Statistical significance is not the same as actual significance–correlation does not imply causation,’ the report said. ‘We at Trilogy are still enthusiastic about social media and still believe strongly that smart use of tools like Facebook and Twitter are an essential component of a winning campaign–and they will be even more important in 2012.’

    But we need to recognize social media for what they are–a tool to move supporters up the engagement ladder–rather than a magic bullet that wins races.'”

    Do my classmates agree? I think that this article got it right. It seems to me that most political candidates are using Facebook as a way to promote their platform with already active supports, not engage in conversation with undecided voters. Any thoughts?

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